Tuesday keeps the week rolling along with a 10-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert as the key arms, while the Yankees and Mariners are the teams to stack.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease (SDP at LAA)
Padres at Angels – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool likes RHP Dylan Cease, as do the Masses, which makes sense as he has the best odds of being the top fantasy producer tonight. He carries a decent but not overbearing salary cap hit on all platforms.
The 28-year-old is posting a career-low 2.66 walks per nine innings, while his 11.03 strikeouts and 0.76 home runs per nine are among his best in three seasons. The last four games have been a little rough, with a 6.23 ERA, but his 3.73 FIP and 3.15 xFIP indicate he was unlucky — and the 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings is still strong. Considering that he played at Atlanta, at Kansas City and against the Yankees through that sample, he gets a mulligan.
Shout out to the Angels, who have won the first two games of the series against the Padres, although they only scored six runs in those tilts. However, over the last 12 games, Los Angeles has scored a scant 31 times, which is why the Halos have been frequent targets for opposing pitchers in this article series over the last fortnight. Enjoy!
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA at OAK)
Mariners at Athletics – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,200 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
Tonight, RHP Logan Gilbert has a definite discount to Cease on Yahoo, though it is not as pronounced on the Big Two DFS sites. Like Cease, Gilbert has had a recent rough patch, but after allowing eight earned runs in Minnesota, he has responded with quality starts in three of his last four appearances.
Tonight will be the 101st start of Gilbert’s career, and his 3.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are personal bests. He is on pace for 20 quality starts while providing nearly a strikeout per inning.
The core of the Oakland offense does have some pop against right-handed pitching, particularly with JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker, Shea Langoliers and Miguel Andujar. Of course, the projected lineup also has a 23.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, so there is plenty of fantasy goodness available to Gilbert as an offset for any runs allowed.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Twins – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddock
DK Top Stack %: 7.2%
FD Top Stack %: 8.1%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is sad that Coors Field is not on the featured slate, but there are still plenty of above-average offensive matchups. In New York, the Yankees will be hosting RHP Chris Paddack, who has facilitated home runs in each of his last four starts. He has recorded 13 earned runs and just 17 strikeouts in his last 23.2 innings.
At times, Power has allowed power to batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate, but over the last season and change, it has been same-handed batsmen holding the edge. In his last 155 matchups against righties, he has allowed a .174 ISO, which may not seem overly egregious, but it is just the opening needed for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Though we do not want to base our decisions on small sample sizes, it is comforting to know that in six at-bats against Paddack, Juan Soto has three hits, two walks and a pair of home runs with only one strikeout. Alex Verdugo and the potentially resurgent Anthony Rizzo can be employed as differentiation plays or combining with the aforementioned power trio. Yahoo and DraftKings did a good job with the salaries for the top half of the order, which at least provides some interesting decision points.
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Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners at Athletics – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Joey Estes
DK Top Stack %: 8.1%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has identified Seattle stacks as the second-best value option. They trail only the White Sox, who are taking on their cross-town rivals with shaky RHP Jameson Taillon toeing the rubber — and an 8-to-12 mph breeze out to right field with temperatures in the mid-70s. Hopefully, the Bleacher Bums are ready for some potential fly-ball action.
The Mariners get a park upgrade pretty much anytime they are on the road, so that is a nice boost for the team tonight. Oakland’s starter, RHP Joey Estes came over from Atlanta as part of the Matt Olson deal, along with catcher Shea Langeliers, pitcher Ryan Cusick and outfielder Christian Pache, who is now with the Phillies.
While Estes was far from a throw-in for that deal, he was a barely tested pitcher who missed out on his second season with Atlanta when the pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season. Estes has matriculated through the various rungs of the minors, and while he should stick around in The Show for the next several seasons, he is better suited as a multi-inning reliever or spot starter.
This will be the second time that Estes has faced Seattle this season. While he managed to survive with just one run in five innings against them, over his 20.2 total innings of work this season, he owns a 6.10 ERA and waaaaaaaay too many long fly ball outs. Though Seattle is last in the league in doubles, the team is in the top 10 for home runs. With Estes living on the edge, this bodes well for some crooked numbers tonight.
Julio Rodriguez is still in the midst of a season-long slump, but at least he is back in the three-hole Rodriguez and switch-hitting catcher/fourth outfielder Luke Raley each pack some pop from the left side of the plate and should have prominent spots in the lineup. J.P Crawford is fresh off his fourth-career grand slam this weekend, plus he is showing some moxie after coming off the injured list.
Mitch Garver, Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas are the second wave of options, plus rookie Ryan Bliss has displayed some speed on the basepaths already. The M’s are a great stack on both slates, with a myriad of ways to construct rosters as none of them, including Rodriguez, are must plays.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Paul Skenes has had one heck of a rookie debut, but he is among the current wagers being highlighted by the OddsShopper model for the under on his 6.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the +110 currently available at BetMGM, HardRock and DraftKings.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +104 “true odds,” so the +110 line brings a decent 3.0% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like BetRivers -119, which is a losing proposition. Be a savvy shopper!
Skenes projects for just under six strikeouts tonight, which is below the seven it would take for the under to lose. The rookie has been sublime over four starts with nine, three, 11 and seven strikeouts, the latter two figures came in his first two career starts against the Cubs in home and away matchups.
Taking on the Dodgers is never an easy feat, even for frontline aces. There is a good chance that the team can get to Skenes early enough, that he does not have time to compile seven strikeouts, even if he is dealing.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, June 5
For the featured slate, there will be rain in Cleveland and Pittsburgh tonight, though the arrival time is still uncertain. The ‘Land may see some late inning issues, though The ‘Burgh looks like anything serious should be after a typical game window. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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