by Alex Sonty (AlexSonty) Last Updated 2024-06-04 17:27:34 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another deep pitching slate. I normally tell you in this space that we are gonna have a tighter pitcher pool and should widen our stack pool to be contrarian, but with Coors and some Wrigley wind on the slate, we’ll need to be heavy on the Reds and Cubs to be over the field. Everything after them should be pretty contrarian. This is great because three great offenses are in solid spots to produce while projecting to go under-owned.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
CHALKY STACKS
Reds at Ty Blach
Cubs vs. Chris Flexen
Attacking Ty Blach in Coors Field is easy. He’s one of the worst starters in all of baseball. He has given up a whole mess of contact (86.4%), has allowed a high barrel rate (10.3%), and is followed up by a poor bullpen.
The Reds visit Coors for a park downgrade in homers but huge park upgrades in extra-base hits and general hitting. Blach is very splitsy, so we’re starting with the righties who have higher barrel rates against LHP, Tyler Stephenson (13.9%) and leadoff man Stuart Fairchild (7.4%), then going to the speed of Elly De La Cruz in an extremely high-contact situation. After them, I’m not enthused to play anyone else. I’m just filling in the blanks left by my secondary stack, but I am full-stacking Cincinnati where I’m playing them because they should be so highly owned.
The only guy I might cross off is Spencer Steer because he’s overpriced for the 5.7% barrel rate against LHP at prime roster slots for power, but he’s as playable for raw projection as anyone else.
It’s worth noting that De La Cruz isn’t much with the bat on the right side, but the strength and speed are there, and the Rockies bullpen should turn him back around for a couple of plate appearances, as Blach shouldn’t last long.
Because the Reds aren’t stacked with power, I dislike playing them as chalk in the single-entry and smaller-field tournaments where the chalk is inflated. I’m more apt to attack Chris Flexen with the Cubs in Wrigley Field with 10-mph winds blowing out.
This isn’t a huge wind boost, but 10 mph is enough to impact fly balls and perk us up. And Flexen has given up a good amount of power (8.9% barrel rate) with a high contact rate (79.6%).
The Cubs have the sexier power bats and are a better value than the Reds, and both teams have virtually the same pOWN%. We should build our stacks around these high barrel rates against RHP:
Christopher Morel, 12.2%
Seiya Suzuki, 11.8%
Dansby Swanson, 10.8%
Ian Happ, 10.5%
The 34.1% fly-ball rate of Cody Bellinger is also always heavily in play with the wind blowing out, despite his low rate of hard-hit balls, because his max-EV with that fly-ball rate gives him a high ceiling. After those five, play whomever you want with this wind. Mike Tauchman is leading off and can lift the ball a bit, Nico ho*rner is a decent line-drive hitter, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a cheap power/speed combo guy, and Miguel Amaya is a cheap catcher.
Play whichever Cubs you want in a full stack. And, like the Reds, we’re heavily focusing on full stacks because the field will likely be heavy on the Cubs.
I like going overweight on the Cubs and slightly underweight on the Reds in MME, avoiding mini stacks of both and looking more to one-off guys like Stephenson, Swanson, or Happ over the higher-pOWN% guys.
In five lineups in mid-dollar, smaller-field tournaments, I’m exposing myself to Reds and Cubs full stacks but am more excited to play against the field with better offenses in great spots themselves for single-entry tournaments.
PIVOT STACKS
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